Making better choices
is not always this easy

 

Newsletter Archive

Stay Calm When the Bear Prowls

Posted On: Sunday, May 1, 2022

Stay Calm When the Bear Prowls

"Courage taught me no matter how bad a crisis gets ... any sound investment will eventually pay off." (Carlos Slim)

Hold onto your chips when the market dips

When stock markets fall, it’s very natural to want to sell your shares and invest in less risky assets like cash and bonds, in an attempt to avoid further loss. Doing this, however, locks in a loss forever. If your share portfolio falls by twenty percent (a normal occurrence in the course of investment cycles) and you sell, the loss becomes permanent – as opposed to a ‘paper loss’.

Another important point is that if your investment drops in value and you sell, you need to achieve a higher return to get back to the initial value. For example, if your investment drops from R1 million to R800,000 and you sell out, you must achieve a 25% return to get back to your original value of R1 million. This is highly unlikely in the short term.

Because no two investment cycles are the same, nobody knows when the markets will turn for the better – not even the smartest analysts. If you’ve sold out, you may very well miss out when the bull starts to run again. The bull is unpredictable and very fast: you can’t afford not to have a finger in the pie during the best performing days.

The proof is in the pudding

Still not convinced? Let’s look at some figures. The research company Morningstar did an analysis using the JSE All Share Index to demonstrate the difference in returns between an investor who decided to stay the course, and three other investors who missed out on the 10 best days, the 20 best days and 50 best days, from October 2003 to October 2018. The study assumed that all four investors invested R1 million in October 2003. At the end of the cycle:

  • The investor who stayed invested was worth R 5.4 million.
     
  • The investor who missed the 10 best days (by trying to time the market) was worth R 3.1 million.
     
  • The investor who missed out on the best 20 days was worth R 2.1 million.
     
  • The investor who missed out on the best 50 days was worth R875,000 – a loss of R125,000.

Isn’t it incredible what a difference a few days can make?

Phase in, or take the plunge?

Now that we’ve proven the importance of staying the course let’s move on to another important question. If you’re sitting on a lot of cash (you may have sold your holiday house or received a great bonus), should you phase in the investment over a period of 6 to 12 months? Or should you take the plunge and invest a lump sum in equity that has recently underperformed?

Phasing in may sound like a good way to minimise risk, but research by Sanlam indicates that phasing in is generally not a good investment strategy. Looking at the period from July 2000 to July 2015, Sanlam found that 83% of the time, a lump sum investment outperformed the phase-in method (for high equity shares). Of course, you do need to consider human emotions. If you can’t stomach the stress taking the plunge, phasing in is a far better bet than not investing at all.

Bulls and bears

Don’t make the mistake of trying to tame these two unpredictable beasts. The markets have always been cyclical – this is not going to change. Think back to the dips in 1929 (if you’re that old!) 1987 and 2008. Remember, that despite their cyclical nature, the markets’ long-term trend is always upwards. The best way to decrease loss (and thus increase the growth of your investments) is through a diversified portfolio that has been compiled by a qualified financial advisor.

The final word

History has a funny habit of repeating itself. And even COVID and the war in Ukraine will eventually pass. While it may be hard to watch your investment portfolio take a short term hit, you’ll do far more damage to your financial future by panic-selling and thus locking in your losses.

If in any doubt, remember that your financial advisor is always only a phone call away.

Please Register Below Or Login To Continue Reading.

Email
First Name
Last Name

2024

September 4 - Market Update: Christmas in September if Rates Come Down as Expected
September 3 - Why You Should Keep Your Investment Strategy to Yourself
September 2 - Aligning Your “Wheel of Life” – A Beginner’s Guide
September 1 - The Big Question: Should You Buy a Home or Rent One?
August 4 - Market Update: Magnificent Seven Lose Their Magnificence in July
August 3 - Unsung Heroes of Insurance: Four Types That Could Save You Money
August 2 - Do You Recognise Yourself in Any of These Client Case Studies?
August 1 - Three Pot System 101: What You Need to Know Before 1 September
July 4 - Market Update: Financial Markets Welcome GNU 2.0 and New Cabinet
July 3 - Busting the Post-Retirement Jargon
July 2 - Safeguard Your Money: Look out for Phishing Scams
July 1 - Why the Marshmallow Effect Could Derail Your Retirement Plans
June 4 - Why Emotions and Investing Don’t Always Mix
June 3 - Demystifying Retirement Planning Lingo
June 2 - The Sandwich Generation: How Can You Deal with Family Always Asking You for Money?
June 1 - How the Elections May Impact Markets in the Months Ahead
May 4 - Market Update: Geopolitical and Economic Risks are on the Rise and Investors are Concerned
May 3 - Need to Know: Annualised Returns Versus Internal Rates of Return
May 2 - Investment Jargon 101: Your One-Stop Primer
May 1 - Do You and Your Partner Share the Same Money Values?
April 4 - Market Update : Will They, Won’t They? The Case for Lower Interest Rates Improved in March.
April 3 - Unpacking Diversification: What Really Counts?
April 2 - Zen and the Art of Financial Planning
April 1 - The Secret to Solving the Financial Rubik’s Cube? Consistency.
March 4 - Market Update: Initial Investor Vote of Confidence Dissipates in Wake of Budget
March 3 - The Most Important Part of a Financial Plan: Room for Error
March 2 - Diversification: Free Lunch or Fool’s Gold?
March 1 - Budget 2024: What it means for you
February 5 - Budget 2024: The Minister of Finance Wants to Hear from You!
February 4 - Market Update: US and SA Markets Diverge on Differing Investor Sentiment
February 3 - Tax Tip: Must-Do Top Ups in February
February 2 - Should Investing Be This Sexy?
February 1 - Is There Really Much Difference Between Investing and Gambling?
January 4 - Market Update: What Lies Ahead for 2024?
January 3 - Think You’re a Rational Investor? Think Again
January 2 - Did 2017 Change the Way You Invest?
January 1 - How to Avoid Getting Burnt by the Next Investment Bubble in 2024

2023

December 4 - Stock Markets Break Three-Month Losing Streak
December 3 - The Differences Between Life and Living Annuities
December 2 - Should you be an Optimist or a Pessimist With Your Money?
December 1 - How to Give Meaningful Gifts This Festive Season
November 4 - Market Update: The Effects of War, Higher Interest Rates and China on Equities
November 3 - Why do People Invest in Property?
November 2 - Retirement Planning: The ins and Outs of Nominating Beneficiaries
November 1 - Retiring Well is About More Than Money
October 4 - Why Your Marital Contract Really Matters
October 3 - How to Avoid Being Scammed by Email Fraudsters
October 2 - The Stock Market Indices to Watch When Monitoring Equity Performance
October 1 - Why do Some People Have a Problem Spending Money?
September 4 - The Difference Between Being Rich and Being Wealthy
September 3 - The Ins and Outs of Buying Offshore Property
September 2 - A Good Budget Doesn’t Limit Spending, it Prioritises it
September 1 - Should you pay off your home loan?
August 4 - How to Take Advantage of the Donations Tax Allowance
August 3 - Five Reasons why a Financial Windfall Must be Managed Carefully
August 2 - What’s Cooking with the Three-Pot System?
August 1 - Make Sure Your Family is Financially Prepared for When You Pass Away
July 4 - A Must-Have for Couples who Choose not to Tie the Knot
July 3 - Can Gratitude Make you Feel Better About Your Money?
July 2 - Four Ways to Make the Most of Retirement
July 1 - How to Invest When There’s So Much Bad News
June 4 - The Ins and Outs of Compulsory Annuities
June 3 - Who is Influencing Your Financial Decisions?
June 2 - R is for Rebalancing
June 1 - Don’t let Money Ruin Your Relationship
May 4 - Five Ways to Teach Kids About Money
May 3 - Much Ado About Risk
May 2 - Living Wills: A Must Have, Despite the Grey Areas
May 1 - What is True Wealth?
April 4 - How the 2023 Budget Will Impact Your Pocket
April 3 - Three Financial Imperatives for Women in Divorce
April 2 - Should You Ask ChatGPT for Financial Advice?
April 1 - Compound Interest: The Eighth Wonder of the World
March 4 - How a ‘Safe’ Fixed Deposit Might Still be Risky
March 3 - Thinking of moving to Australia? Bear these numbers in mind
March 2 - Avoid These 6 Barriers to Wealth Creation
March 1 - How Good do You Think You Are at Investing?
February 4 - Is Money Stress Taking a Toll on You?
February 3 - Why an Endowment is One of the Best Ways to Invest Offshore
February 2 - Why too Much of a Good Thing Can be a Bad Thing
February 1 - Invest With FIRE and Never Look Back
January 4 - Why Lottery Winners End up Broke: The Importance of Your Financial Context
January 3 - Discover the Freedom of a Tidy Portfolio
January 2 - Why You Absolutely Should be Investing in Education
January 1 - Four Simple Steps to Start the Year on the Right Financial Foot

2022

December 4 - What is This Volatility Risk People are Always Talking About?
December 3 - Why You Need to Watch Out for The Butterfly Effect
December 2 - 6 Ways to Achieve Financial Freedom
December 1 - Three Books for the Holidays
November 4 - The Question of Loyalty
November 3 - Why do we Even Have Bull and Bear Markets?
November 2 - Should I Buy a Holiday House?
November 1 - Put Stocks, Rather Than Socks, Under the Tree This Christmas
October 4 - Can You Take Out Life Insurance on Someone Else?
October 3 - Loss Aversion and Lifestyle Creep – How Behaviour Influences Saving
October 2 - Why Timing Might be Everything in Retirement – Especially in a Bear Market
October 1 - Get Rich - Stay Rich Eight Mistakes Wealthy People Never Make
September 4 - Capital Gains Tax: 10 Common Questions Answered
September 3 - The Risk That Many Investors Don’t Think About
September 2 - Much Ado About Regulation 28 and the Private Investor
September 1 - The “Two Bucket” Retirement Savings System: What is it and Why is it Important?
August 4 - Retirement Planning for Age-Gap Couples
August 3 - A Simple “50-15-5” Budget Hack for Women (and Men!)
August 2 - Does Your Family Need a Constitution?
August 1 - Women’s Month: Three Ways You Can Improve Your Money Health
July 4 - Five Things to Check When a Loved One Passes Away
July 3 - Rules of Financial Planning For a Special-Needs Child
July 2 - Why Your Financial Plan Should Cater For Possible Dementia
July 1 - Why Inflation is the Most Important Investment Benchmark
June 4 - How Relevant Is The 4% Rule of Thumb These Days?
June 3 - Why You Should Treat Your Finances Like Your Health
June 2 - Is Your Business Good Retirement Capital?
June 1 - With the Limits Raised, How Much Should You Invest Offshore?
May 5 - Quote of the Month: Challenging the Rejection of an Insurance Claim
May 4 - Financial Products: The Less You Understand, the More You Pay
May 3 - The Miracle of Investment Debit Orders
May 2 - Five Things to Think About as Interest Rates Rise
May 1 - Stay Calm When the Bear Prowls
April 5 - Quotes of the Month – The War in Ukraine
April 4 - Smart Ways to Give: During and After Your Lifetime
April 3 - Take These Three Steps to Break the Money Shame Spiral
April 2 - When Things Don’t Go According To (The Financial) Plan
April 1 - What Amazon and Ford Can Tell Us About Diversification
March 4 - Quotes of the month – What the NFT?
March 3 - How to Avoid Losing Your Life’s Savings to a “Tinder Swindler”
March 2 - The Different Ways to Invest: What Does It All Mean?
March 1 - Three Reasons You Shouldn’t Wait to Talk to Your Kids About Money
February 6 - Quote of the Month – Don’t Cash In Your Retirement Savings
February 5 - Should You Top Up Your Retirement Annuities Now?
February 4 - Don’t Let Delays in the Master’s Office Leave Your Family in Financial Distress
February 3 - Don’t Let Delays in the Master’s Office Leave Your Family in Financial Distress
February 2 - Three Reasons an Insurer Could Cancel Your Policy
February 1 - Investing: Men and Women See Things Differently
January 4 - Quote of the month – Stay invested!
January 3 - What SARS Says About Crypto Assets and Tax
January 2 - Three Ways to Leave a Legacy, And Not Just an Estate
January 1 - Red-Carding the Myth of The Rational Investor