Making better choices
is not always this easy

 

Newsletter Archive

Should you be an Optimist or a Pessimist With Your Money?

Posted On: Saturday, December 2, 2023

Should you be an Optimist or a Pessimist With Your Money?

“Both optimists and pessimists contribute to society. The optimist invents the aeroplane, the pessimist the parachute.” (George Bernard Shaw)

Cast your mind back to the middle of March 2020, when fears around Covid-19 sent the JSE into a spiral. The All Share Index dropped more than 25% in just a few days.

Pessimism about how the hard lockdowns would impact the economy was so extreme that many people abandoned the stock market altogether. It just seemed too risky.

At that point it would have seemed naïve or foolish to suggest that the JSE would finish the year higher than it started. Yet, that is exactly what happened.

Once the initial panic passed, investors started to realise that there were actually all sorts of reasons for optimism. It became clear that forcing people to stay at home would benefit companies like Amazon, Microsoft and Zoom. A new focus on the environment could also make Tesla the most important car manufacturer in the world.

Fear and greed

This was an unusually swift and sharp example of the constant battle playing out in markets. There is always a tension between fear and pessimism in one direction, and greed and optimism in the other.

For an investor, the challenge is knowing where to position yourself in this argument. Famously, Warren Buffet advised that you should “be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful”.

But this is really advice about when to buy and sell individual stocks. It is not useful guidance for long-term investors, who shouldn’t be trying to time when to go in or out of the market.

Morgan Housel, who wrote The Psychology of Money, has a different way of thinking about it. He suggests that “progress requires optimism and pessimism to co-exist”.

Prepare for the worst

“The best financial plan,” writes Housel, “is to save like a pessimist and invest like an optimist.”

In other words, it’s good to be prepared for the worst. Have a diversified portfolio that can withstand the kinds of extreme market movements we saw in 2020, because, from time to time, markets will turn against you.

Your financial plan also needs to be able to protect you against the worst life events.

If you fall seriously ill or a disability stops you from working, you need to have insurance in place. And you need to have emergency savings in the event that you lose your job or are hit by a large, unexpected expense.

Take advantage of the best

But, at the same time, don’t neglect the lessons of decades of history that show that, over the long term, stock markets will deliver the best compounded returns.

You won’t be a successful long-term investor if you are always too conservative. You have to be prepared to take some risks with your money. You need to appreciate that stock markets will be unpredictable over the short term, but if you stay invested you will see the reward.

That was true of the Covid crash, and of every crash that preceded it. In time, markets always bounce back.

Staying optimistic will therefore give you the best chance to grow your wealth. But you will only have that opportunity if you take the necessary precautions to not get financially derailed along the way.

As Housel notes: “The trick is being able to survive the short-run problems so you can stick around long enough to enjoy the long-term growth.”

To discuss your investment and savings plans, speak to us.
 

Please Register Below Or Login To Continue Reading.

Email
First Name
Last Name

2024

September 4 - Market Update: Christmas in September if Rates Come Down as Expected
September 3 - Why You Should Keep Your Investment Strategy to Yourself
September 2 - Aligning Your “Wheel of Life” – A Beginner’s Guide
September 1 - The Big Question: Should You Buy a Home or Rent One?
August 4 - Market Update: Magnificent Seven Lose Their Magnificence in July
August 3 - Unsung Heroes of Insurance: Four Types That Could Save You Money
August 2 - Do You Recognise Yourself in Any of These Client Case Studies?
August 1 - Three Pot System 101: What You Need to Know Before 1 September
July 4 - Market Update: Financial Markets Welcome GNU 2.0 and New Cabinet
July 3 - Busting the Post-Retirement Jargon
July 2 - Safeguard Your Money: Look out for Phishing Scams
July 1 - Why the Marshmallow Effect Could Derail Your Retirement Plans
June 4 - Why Emotions and Investing Don’t Always Mix
June 3 - Demystifying Retirement Planning Lingo
June 2 - The Sandwich Generation: How Can You Deal with Family Always Asking You for Money?
June 1 - How the Elections May Impact Markets in the Months Ahead
May 4 - Market Update: Geopolitical and Economic Risks are on the Rise and Investors are Concerned
May 3 - Need to Know: Annualised Returns Versus Internal Rates of Return
May 2 - Investment Jargon 101: Your One-Stop Primer
May 1 - Do You and Your Partner Share the Same Money Values?
April 4 - Market Update : Will They, Won’t They? The Case for Lower Interest Rates Improved in March.
April 3 - Unpacking Diversification: What Really Counts?
April 2 - Zen and the Art of Financial Planning
April 1 - The Secret to Solving the Financial Rubik’s Cube? Consistency.
March 4 - Market Update: Initial Investor Vote of Confidence Dissipates in Wake of Budget
March 3 - The Most Important Part of a Financial Plan: Room for Error
March 2 - Diversification: Free Lunch or Fool’s Gold?
March 1 - Budget 2024: What it means for you
February 5 - Budget 2024: The Minister of Finance Wants to Hear from You!
February 4 - Market Update: US and SA Markets Diverge on Differing Investor Sentiment
February 3 - Tax Tip: Must-Do Top Ups in February
February 2 - Should Investing Be This Sexy?
February 1 - Is There Really Much Difference Between Investing and Gambling?
January 4 - Market Update: What Lies Ahead for 2024?
January 3 - Think You’re a Rational Investor? Think Again
January 2 - Did 2017 Change the Way You Invest?
January 1 - How to Avoid Getting Burnt by the Next Investment Bubble in 2024

2023

December 4 - Stock Markets Break Three-Month Losing Streak
December 3 - The Differences Between Life and Living Annuities
December 2 - Should you be an Optimist or a Pessimist With Your Money?
December 1 - How to Give Meaningful Gifts This Festive Season
November 4 - Market Update: The Effects of War, Higher Interest Rates and China on Equities
November 3 - Why do People Invest in Property?
November 2 - Retirement Planning: The ins and Outs of Nominating Beneficiaries
November 1 - Retiring Well is About More Than Money
October 4 - Why Your Marital Contract Really Matters
October 3 - How to Avoid Being Scammed by Email Fraudsters
October 2 - The Stock Market Indices to Watch When Monitoring Equity Performance
October 1 - Why do Some People Have a Problem Spending Money?
September 4 - The Difference Between Being Rich and Being Wealthy
September 3 - The Ins and Outs of Buying Offshore Property
September 2 - A Good Budget Doesn’t Limit Spending, it Prioritises it
September 1 - Should you pay off your home loan?
August 4 - How to Take Advantage of the Donations Tax Allowance
August 3 - Five Reasons why a Financial Windfall Must be Managed Carefully
August 2 - What’s Cooking with the Three-Pot System?
August 1 - Make Sure Your Family is Financially Prepared for When You Pass Away
July 4 - A Must-Have for Couples who Choose not to Tie the Knot
July 3 - Can Gratitude Make you Feel Better About Your Money?
July 2 - Four Ways to Make the Most of Retirement
July 1 - How to Invest When There’s So Much Bad News
June 4 - The Ins and Outs of Compulsory Annuities
June 3 - Who is Influencing Your Financial Decisions?
June 2 - R is for Rebalancing
June 1 - Don’t let Money Ruin Your Relationship
May 4 - Five Ways to Teach Kids About Money
May 3 - Much Ado About Risk
May 2 - Living Wills: A Must Have, Despite the Grey Areas
May 1 - What is True Wealth?
April 4 - How the 2023 Budget Will Impact Your Pocket
April 3 - Three Financial Imperatives for Women in Divorce
April 2 - Should You Ask ChatGPT for Financial Advice?
April 1 - Compound Interest: The Eighth Wonder of the World
March 4 - How a ‘Safe’ Fixed Deposit Might Still be Risky
March 3 - Thinking of moving to Australia? Bear these numbers in mind
March 2 - Avoid These 6 Barriers to Wealth Creation
March 1 - How Good do You Think You Are at Investing?
February 4 - Is Money Stress Taking a Toll on You?
February 3 - Why an Endowment is One of the Best Ways to Invest Offshore
February 2 - Why too Much of a Good Thing Can be a Bad Thing
February 1 - Invest With FIRE and Never Look Back
January 4 - Why Lottery Winners End up Broke: The Importance of Your Financial Context
January 3 - Discover the Freedom of a Tidy Portfolio
January 2 - Why You Absolutely Should be Investing in Education
January 1 - Four Simple Steps to Start the Year on the Right Financial Foot

2022

December 4 - What is This Volatility Risk People are Always Talking About?
December 3 - Why You Need to Watch Out for The Butterfly Effect
December 2 - 6 Ways to Achieve Financial Freedom
December 1 - Three Books for the Holidays
November 4 - The Question of Loyalty
November 3 - Why do we Even Have Bull and Bear Markets?
November 2 - Should I Buy a Holiday House?
November 1 - Put Stocks, Rather Than Socks, Under the Tree This Christmas
October 4 - Can You Take Out Life Insurance on Someone Else?
October 3 - Loss Aversion and Lifestyle Creep – How Behaviour Influences Saving
October 2 - Why Timing Might be Everything in Retirement – Especially in a Bear Market
October 1 - Get Rich - Stay Rich Eight Mistakes Wealthy People Never Make
September 4 - Capital Gains Tax: 10 Common Questions Answered
September 3 - The Risk That Many Investors Don’t Think About
September 2 - Much Ado About Regulation 28 and the Private Investor
September 1 - The “Two Bucket” Retirement Savings System: What is it and Why is it Important?
August 4 - Retirement Planning for Age-Gap Couples
August 3 - A Simple “50-15-5” Budget Hack for Women (and Men!)
August 2 - Does Your Family Need a Constitution?
August 1 - Women’s Month: Three Ways You Can Improve Your Money Health
July 4 - Five Things to Check When a Loved One Passes Away
July 3 - Rules of Financial Planning For a Special-Needs Child
July 2 - Why Your Financial Plan Should Cater For Possible Dementia
July 1 - Why Inflation is the Most Important Investment Benchmark
June 4 - How Relevant Is The 4% Rule of Thumb These Days?
June 3 - Why You Should Treat Your Finances Like Your Health
June 2 - Is Your Business Good Retirement Capital?
June 1 - With the Limits Raised, How Much Should You Invest Offshore?
May 5 - Quote of the Month: Challenging the Rejection of an Insurance Claim
May 4 - Financial Products: The Less You Understand, the More You Pay
May 3 - The Miracle of Investment Debit Orders
May 2 - Five Things to Think About as Interest Rates Rise
May 1 - Stay Calm When the Bear Prowls
April 5 - Quotes of the Month – The War in Ukraine
April 4 - Smart Ways to Give: During and After Your Lifetime
April 3 - Take These Three Steps to Break the Money Shame Spiral
April 2 - When Things Don’t Go According To (The Financial) Plan
April 1 - What Amazon and Ford Can Tell Us About Diversification
March 4 - Quotes of the month – What the NFT?
March 3 - How to Avoid Losing Your Life’s Savings to a “Tinder Swindler”
March 2 - The Different Ways to Invest: What Does It All Mean?
March 1 - Three Reasons You Shouldn’t Wait to Talk to Your Kids About Money
February 6 - Quote of the Month – Don’t Cash In Your Retirement Savings
February 5 - Should You Top Up Your Retirement Annuities Now?
February 4 - Don’t Let Delays in the Master’s Office Leave Your Family in Financial Distress
February 3 - Don’t Let Delays in the Master’s Office Leave Your Family in Financial Distress
February 2 - Three Reasons an Insurer Could Cancel Your Policy
February 1 - Investing: Men and Women See Things Differently
January 4 - Quote of the month – Stay invested!
January 3 - What SARS Says About Crypto Assets and Tax
January 2 - Three Ways to Leave a Legacy, And Not Just an Estate
January 1 - Red-Carding the Myth of The Rational Investor